References

• Risk Analysis, by GCA Dickson, published in association with The Institute of Risk Management by Witherby.
• Management Control Concepts, Risk Management Today and Tomorrow, by David McNamee, CIA, CISA, CFE, CGFM.
• Risk Analysis and Management for Projects Thomas Telford 1998 0-7277-2697-8
• Journal of Risk Research, Volume 1 E & FN Spon 1998 ISSN 1366-9877
• Risk and Reward in PFI Contracts Private Finance Panel
• Project Risk Management, Chapman and Ward, Wiley, ISBN 0-471-95804-2
• The International Journal of Project and Business Risk Management
• The International Journal of Project and Business Risk Management

Accountancy, Finance and Economics

Reference: The Bank fo England

There are many standard texts to which I add the Bank of England's website. Since about 1995 I have been able to attend the quarterly briefings held by the Bank of England Agency for Greater London at which the influences on the economy are discussed. The Bank has other Agencies to cover the whole of the UK. They use a very wide range of sources including, importantly, their own research with companies in each of the regions.

One of the most revealing features of these is the use of fan charts which are a very clear way of revealing the range of possible results arising from a deep scenraio analysis.

Imagine that for a small company you are considering the future income and outgoings, and the variety of things that could affect it, and the probabilities of each affecting it. This is relatively easy: you might be able to assess the effect of weather, transport, general market conditions, prices of labour and material. You would then come up with a range of predicsiton based on combinations of worst/average/best cases. You could do the same for a larger company and hone in on the greatest influencers over the short or long term to produce a business model depicting this. While working with Ernst & Young a team of us did this for a major company looking at a 20 year time period.

Now try doing the same thing for the UK economy, which is influenced by a very wide range of changes worldwide, some of which are relatively predictable, and others which are not. The Bank of England produces fan charts for this in green for GDP and red for inflation. Along with a wide range of other material and publciations you can find them on their web site, www.bankofengland.co.uk